Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 12.356329 14.464050 16.774659 19.489230 22.584269 25.996179 30.034968
2024-12-15 9.610632 12.475932 15.902757 20.275658 25.677082 32.097818 40.272182
2024-12-22 7.583725 10.766254 14.866374 20.473512 27.869920 37.212497 49.812345
2024-12-29 6.147783 9.447684 13.985246 20.571825 29.757397 41.962250 59.220977
2025-01-05 4.870701 8.063239 12.727083 19.876491 30.359850 44.930339 66.410406
2025-01-12 4.085559 7.231904 12.083072 19.884980 31.834035 49.095125 75.457194
2025-01-19 3.462643 6.528254 11.499037 19.854633 33.169268 53.083934 84.474448
2025-01-26 3.169208 6.311199 11.631503 20.917599 36.217639 59.776291 97.894925
2025-02-02 2.881031 6.048074 11.637752 21.747940 38.936086 66.127143 111.200024
2025-02-09 2.651820 5.850556 11.719333 22.690679 41.887671 73.014485 125.754647
2025-02-16 2.320694 5.397492 11.278006 22.657022 43.169955 77.284224 136.395606
2025-02-23 1.955647 4.809056 10.501068 21.916451 43.135667 79.349302 143.540641
2025-03-02 1.642310 4.279183 9.776339 21.210647 43.134234 81.533955 151.160609
2025-03-09 1.459677 4.005678 9.525397 21.381312 44.736635 86.574726 163.931915
2025-03-16 1.282601 3.710451 9.186384 21.332492 45.911115 90.928906 175.776344
2025-03-23 1.133806 3.454181 8.893020 21.336729 47.173575 95.505639 188.267306
2025-03-30 0.953896 3.079048 8.277281 20.582416 46.857647 97.146270 195.567655
2025-04-06 0.845975 2.873816 8.022844 20.577341 48.040489 101.642106 208.309572
2025-04-13 0.750038 2.681141 7.769264 20.540782 49.144516 106.042377 221.104696
2025-04-20 0.721681 2.682696 7.997347 21.633879 52.720927 115.443767 243.815904
2025-04-27 0.683144 2.645103 8.119807 22.488362 55.843845 124.125962 265.589364
2025-05-04 0.651985 2.624763 8.284413 23.458961 59.290835 133.643394 289.443265
2025-05-11 0.583292 2.464771 8.050467 23.424173 60.488700 138.675575 304.778252